well, sometimes it just

fits. there is always a bull market somewhere. see you tomorrow. >> the bell is ringing here on wall street. >> surges. stocks sore and the dow strikes an all time high. >> the dow has indeed hit a knew all time high mark. five years after hitting bottom. the market got it's mojo back. >> will we go higher from here or will economic uncertainty and dc dysfunction cripple the rally and what does it mean for your money tonight the answers you need. this is a cnbc special report. dow, all time high. >> good evening everyone. cnbc's special coverage continues. >> five years after the bottom the market erases it's losses.

>> tonight we answer the questions being asked from wall street to main street. is there more to come and did i miss it. >> and there was a stir on the floor as we hit the all time high. it has been a long strange trip and it was not at all obvious that we would be hitting record highs during the dark days of 2008 and 2009. the dow jones industrial average known as much for making great fortunes as it is for nile l annihilating them as whipped saws drops and rallies. >> rallying on the day. >> shooting to on october 9, of 2007 and then dropping 50% in march 2009 on the heels of

the crisis. >> and if you are not annoyed about it. you don't have your heart in this. the dow went straight up passing 10,000 in october a gain of 53%. >> the dow jones industrial average closes at 10,000. >> we saw panic. guys came into buy fogold. the market took off again when fed chairman ben bernanke pledged to pump massive amounts of money into the economy. we ought to maintain a degree of fiscal support. the dow dipped again in 2011 after supporters downgraded u.s. debt and is powering ahead now thanks to an improving economy and the fed keeping rates low. >> where do we go from here?

earnings are at new highs. with sub par growth, it is likely to be a constraint on the markets. but a historic day for all of us. and you could feel it for us. >> some old familiar faces there. you have to laugh. we hit the all time high. but will we stay there? >> with the top investing minds. jim paulson and guys good evening to both of you. you sent me a note saying this is not a sugar high. do you feel the same way? >> i do. the fed has helped this market. i think there has been a lot of improvement as well. it is not that we solved our problems and growth isn't fast enough to please anyone. think where we are four years ago and where we are today in the economy. we are creating jobs, but we are

creating them and we are bringing the unemployment rate down. the bank loans are rising and there are things going on that has caused this market to climb back to full recovery. >> at the end of the day, you are not seeing the kind of revenue growth that you would want to see in the recovery. is that going to be a wrench in the ointment. >> i think revenue and bottom line growth since the lows in 2009 have been extraordinary. i think that is to be expected where we are in this face. but i think barring a recession which i don't think is in the cards ip t s in the near term cl off here. i think they can trend down a little bit. and history shows it doesn't have to be a problem in the market. even if we have a little bit

more weakness, i think we have that base for evaluation. >> i think we are seeing charts of highs next to you. i know people are worried but where can investors make money tomorrow morning. >> i think jim, that what i would look at is lightening up a little bit. on some of the stuff that has done well, the defensive areas health care, and look at plowing some of those funds more or gented here, i think industrials are going to do well. the financials are going to do well this year with activity coming back again and then i would look at some of those things like technology and material stocks which could catch up as the year progresses and they come into play and get better momentum.

you talk about storm proofing your bonds. is this the time exit stage right? >> i think that is something you think about tonight. what we have done is gone to new height. because confidence has risen enough jim to bring values back to full recovery. i think as the year progresses, that same confidence is going to cause havoc if you will withliziwithlize ing rising yields and bond losses. i think you need to look at p v proof for your storm. we probably have mom and pops watching tonight. they are hearing that there is news. are they back? is the kitchen table conversation bhrnt whether or n need to get back into the market? >> i was at an event in austin

texas tomorrow night. you are getting people asking questions again about the market as opposed to crisis oriented questions. so i think there is thatt enthusia enthusiasm. i think it is too soon to look at the flows in february. most of the money that is feeding into the market is actually coming from the sls fr side lines is coming from cash. the goodness is that if yields start to tick up here at this stage in the ikel cycle that ar positively correlated with the stock market. >> and what about the news at the end of the day tonight news out of venezuela hugo chavez is dead, could this create

volatility in the oil markets? >> you know, if they had become a bigger producer that they had hoped to be and we have not had the success that we have had? i would be more worried about it. i'm a big believer in this manufacturing and renaissance. thank you everybody. we will see you soon. thank you very much. we will see you soon, guys. coming up. if you believe all good things come in threes, you have three names that are priced just right. still to come, the dow made history today. not everyone believes that is going to last. why that wall of worry hasn't crumbled just yet.

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welcome waback to this cnbc special report. >> you may be wondering what does that mean for me where can i make money right now?

>> there is a tremendous number of stocks that have done nothing. i think we have to point to that. six out of the ten biggest sectors are not back to normal. >> it is funny. we all feel gun shy. >> this is when you come in. like key corp. this stock is down 70%. itnot as bad as it used to be. it is coming back. the book value is clean. why is it down 70%. stocks are down for a good reason. i didn't want to mention bank of america. >> a lot of people feel make the bottom is not reached yet. kia is looking clean. i like ohio. that part of the country is doing well. better than we are. >> they have 2.7% yield.

if we are right the people are going to come back in and they will do well. this is a financial without debt to speak of. they are unbelievable equity managers. >> how is the valuation. >> it is the same as it was when we hit the high last time. >> it is a better company. >> i'm doing the makes no sense to me. >> because my neighbors is unemployed. >> these make no sense to me. >> nordtroms. >> the gatsby index. you get the suits immediately. >> you should talk. >> this company is unchanged. luxury. they are still spending. the rich are not like you and me. this company has made major strides in discount. >> you have names that you would avoid. >> i have to tell you i do these

stories and i love clorox. i think he is the greatest ceo but it is bleach for heaven's sake. it kills germs but google that is so much higher. i don't know kimberly is great. i use -- well i use their tissues. guys, honestly. that does not have the growth characteristics that i want. everyone is talking about the broader market. 13.5 times earnings faster. >> we have these guys come on air. ben bernanke he won't be able to stop the bond. well sell bonds. i loved your interview with him. he is talking about the 3% yield. >> well you know what?

y maybe they will be a 2% yielder. >> the rally. can you build a real rally on heinz and smucker's and hershey? >> they need to take a breather. but cocoa went ended up doing okay. let's think about these materials. they are up. industrials aren't up. near and dear, general electric. the stock is down huge from where they are. are they doing that bad a job there? >> financials what is your take? >> usb said some things today, it was like come on, man don't speak to them. i like the scepticism. i mentioned that because warren buffet liked it so much. you see radiance up. mtg after the close.

there is still some room to grow in the financials. go black rock and down and outer. let it be key. >> technology. >> what do you do? >> the roughest. i watch, i watch apple go down every day. >> you like that? i do think that google has earnings that bad. you need momentum. a lot of these tech stocks, you say something about about them and i'm wondering, if they have to unload some stock in apple, where are they going to go into google? >> if apple comes in and says listen, we are going to buy, $1 billion a week, i'm stuck looking at things like agnet. there are kinks everywhere. i don't want to own microsoft. my kids are like that is a smith

corona typewriter. but mobil phones. >> great stuff. >> one last thing? >> of course. i'm not kidding i think facebook is okay. >> all right. >> you would buy it here? >> yeah, i had two charters talk about it tonight. they made a compel pi case. i also said usair is a buy. >> i love technical strategies. >> thank you so much jim. >> the federal reserve may be one reason we are sitting at an all time high tonight. but others are warning about potential dangers to the market. >> coming up the one thing that could turn stocks around. >> and two amazing new shows are premiering tonight. 9:00 eastern. >> and at 10:00 eastern up for the premier of "car

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welcome back. the historic run on the markets did not come without some help. the federal reserve has been pumping money into the markets at a jaw-dropping pace. >> listen to what investors said

here on cnbc just this week. >> the party is going on, money is being pumped in. supply and demand is good so i think this party can continue for a while. the problem is, i don't know when it is going to end, but my guess is it is going to end very badly. >> i think bernanke has sort of carried the load himself during this period. and there is no question that stocks are higher because interest rates are zero than they would be otherwise. >> so can the fed ease it's foot off the ped al and avoid disastrous ending? >> joining me steve forbes and larry kudlow. >> steve, you think the federal reserve is hurting the economy over the long-term? >> that is right. it is distorting the credit

market households are having a hard time getting a good line of credit. mortgage backed securities get what they want and big companies get what they need and the job creators are saying over a three year period the economy is growing less and less. stalling now. so the federal reserve trying to help us has hurt us. >> larry, foot on the ped al to much? >> i never approved of all after this. to steve's point, you have to look at the numbers. the monetary base, which is the bonds they buy, it is the liquid tuesd ity has grown at 62% in the last two months. this is qe 3 kicking in and i think stocks are absorbing this.

i do believe that profits have played a major role in this stock market rally. i don't and i think as long as profits keep rising you are going to be okay. >> at all to the fed? even though levels are a few. >> i don't ascribe that the markets are to the fed. and i don't approve of that. it interesting if you look at the meeting last week what the fed said is, heck, we are not only not going to sell these bonds we are going to let them run off and redeem and let them come to maturity. so the process is going to actually extend longer than people think and i have a feeling that has something to do with the rally going on. >> steve, we keep getting fed speak and some of the members of the fomc, the federal reserve think you should keep your foot

on the ped al until unemployment comes down to 5.5 which some think won't happen again. >> you are not going to get that rate again until you have a small business sector. it does not work. and when you have taxes going up in this economy and taxes going up in europe and japan and china dealing with the realize state bubble. we have to get back to basics. a sound monetary policy is how you get a sustained recovery. from the mid 60s to the early 80s we had wonderful rallies in the stock market. but the market tanks in that 16-year-old period and we are doing the same thing since the 1990s. you have to look at tax rates and spending and regulations and

trade. i agree with that. i want to say, maybe i'm getting soft and mellowed out. bernanke said don't blame me for inflation. so we all looked it up and the guy is right. the rate is less than 2%. given all the money he has printed that is a low rate. i think that the dollar has been firm and has not collapsed. i'm watching gold lose it's interest. if you are worried about inflation, i don't see the inflation. it is kind of out there but it is note happnot happening. i wi i will say as long as profits continue to rise. this stock market has room to rise corrections and all. doesn't the fed owe it to us

toism plain how when it comes time to withdraw this policy they will do it? >> because he doesn't know. we are in unchartered waters right now. when you look at the flow and price of credit and where it is going. it is unmistakable. he has distorted the credit. so you can have dbig companies o well and sha rthrive as you see japan. but if you want big companies in the future. you have to have environments where small companies have a big line of credit. but steve, i will say this. if you look carefully at the business loans, banks are making business loans. this is recent. some of those loans are going into smaller business. what does strike me. i don't want to give the fed too

much credit or fame here. most of the numbers are coming in stronger than people thought. i'm referring to the ism reports and the car sale s reports and the profit numbers. capex referring to the end of the year. it is interesting to me, not jojob s yet. not incomes that steve forbes is talking about. we give the fed too much credit and too much blame. economic numbers is this going to turn this thing around what are you expecting friday? >> my guess is it will come in on the over but it is not going to be that great. >> talking about 150,000 new jobs. jobless claims have come down and the economy is not dead and wouldn't it be nice if we continue to cut spending the

kudlow argument cutting spending as in the washington spending cut see quest ter is not a bad thing a couple of days after the washington spending cuts were signed in. that is called free market capitalism. >> thank you. larry and steve. >> you won't believe how much some things have changed. not all for the better. kayla is joining us with that angle. >> back then october 9,2007 solya boy was at the top of the charts and the final harry potter book at the top of the shelves. for drivers there was less pain at the pump. what you were spending on gas you could be saving on your mortgage. the rate on a 30 year fixed as

come down. students and parents back then were paying in cash for college. more than doubles to over $1 trillion. national debt nearly doubling as well. a number that has swelled to nearly $17 trillion. one rise that has been good for consumers shares of apple closing up 226% from the 2007 level. the company has launched five iphones and the ipad. >> five iphones and the ipad. the market bursting through walls of worry today to get to the record high. mandy has what the dow overcame. >> he has three more stocks you should know about. back in a moment. everyone's retirement dream is different;

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welcome back to the cnbc special report.

"dow all time high". >> the thing that you can say is that if you had been climbing this wall of worry, it may have brought us to this position right now. if these real worries that are going to bring this airplane or is this minor turbulance. some of the things that the people have put out there for us. for example, the slow earnings momentum. the earnings have been there but the revenue hasn't as well. >> you are right. remember, going into the last earnings season. it has been ratcheted down significantly. but the american companiy ies managed to beat those lower expectations. and then you have here in this corner lower volume.

we have been able to get to the highs with the low volume. >> sometimes it feels like there is two people trading a lot of people got burned. when you are starting to see the headlines like record high every single day. you don't want them to be coming in at the top and get burned. >> you have politics every single day. we have gone through the election and the market shrugged it off. >> what did the market do? >> i tweeted the other day. the market is like a parent that doesn't hear his parents fig fighting anymore. >> and then we have europe. the problems have not gonna way. some have gotten better and some have gotten worse. >> these are some of the things that we've got over. >> send it back to jim with more

ideas and how you might make money in this market. >> i am honored to be with guys i see every day and i'm thrilled. i'm talking to two of the fast money regulars. we were talking during the break about the idea of buying airline stocks. i haven't recommended one since 1985 and there i was say iing - you are talking about the idea that maybe this isn't so far fetched. >> these guys are hitting it out of the park, jim. you look at the money flows into these names. usair of course americans are going to get 72%. this trade has been working. all of the airlines. delta. we have talked about the story of cutting back on capacity and how well managed they are. it appears to be a business run

by adults for one of the first times in history. >> that is so true. the airlines were stocked you rented. >> they ran up and you short them and they traded where oil traded. but now they are actually businesses. i don't know how they got past the anti-trust guys. >> it is the pro trust department of the division. >> you know how much it is going to cost to fly. we are paying huge and we have the little seats. >> your lcc what is that three or four times earnings? >> this is crazy. >> they are making from baggage fees and there are so many more ways that they can make money. >> billion dollars saved after this. >> i love it when you guys talk. i can't help it. it was a $20 billion company and it was down today on a fabulous day. >> that is a tell tale sign.

i'm short the stock. i think this has a $5 none all over it. $5. the reason being, there is no way out for it. it is filene's basement. >> it is and we know what happened. >> ron johnson may go out but today this is what the stock reacts to. if he doesn't drive sales higher this year. they don't have a year. so i think the experiment is close to being over. >> it will be a smaller company, jim if it survives it will be smaller. and i think it could have a hat size, a single digit to it quickly. who is the buyer here. >> when vornado needs to dump, this is going to be painful. i'm not routing for that. but i can see the writing on the wall. >> give me something you are routing for. >> we sold it go ahead hit me.

>> raid yum. this guy has nailed it. >> i like this group. >> sussays to tccess to the rat. >> mtg announces after the bell that they are going to do a secondary offering and it is 67% of the stock. so people think this thing is going to creator and it goes down and it bounces like that. badness good reaction what does that tell you? >> you have this circle. they raise capital and they can do more underwriting and the earnings come back. it was 8 to 10 and change. since they did the secondary. and it could be the same. you have to buy them when they do the offering. usually it was two days. clny it has a 6.5% yield. brilliant guy runs the company.

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welcome back to the cnbc special report, "the dow's all time high today". >> the wealth affected consumer applied to stocks and home prices. >> with us now the co-founder of the home price index along with our steve leisman. you wrote a piece in the "new york times" and that is even though we had a nice run in housing you are not sure where we go from here. where do you think we are

headed? >> well, i think housing went through the biggest bubble in the history of this country and we are still recovering from that. we probably don't see another development of the same thing in a few years. so i think that we are burned from that. and we have new regulations and a whole different reluctance to fuel and things like this. >> not great news and even though we are coming back from it. you are seeing evidence that the market is recovering. how would you characterize recovery in housing? >> you have to distinguish between single family and multi family.

i think the reason is, there was a shift toward rental in the public demand. and i don't know what this bodes for the longer run. home prices have not historically always gone up. they have stayed flat. i don't seen thus assic optimism here. >> we know there has to be something driving this rally. if you are already in a 401 k if your house is already done going down. >> are you going to by a car, suit or a stock? >> those are the only three choice. >> look, i think here is the story, you hit it right. housing is done going down and it is up a bit. i have cool charts in the back. we have come way down and most of the way back. and you can see that is what happened and mostly it is driven

by ending the decline in housing and rises in stock prices. it is not a rally in assets. wealthy year people own more stocks and regular average people own moreoutsing and you don't have the housing gains across. but it is significant that housing has stopped and that d ends a lack of confidence out the there. >> but i'll take the car. >> how concerned are you over mortgage rates when and where they go up and the degree to which that slows down the reyufreyuf recovery in housing? >> that is the big question. they are at record lows, this is such an abnormal economy. steve just said home prices are done going down. i don't know how he knows that. one thing that could change

things is if interest rates could start going up. we have a negative ten year yield. >> they have been done going down. housing prices have stopped falling at least to this point. i don't know what is going to happen in the future. there has been an adjustment and i think that is a reasonably defensible position and i think that is part of what is giving confidence back and you look into the confidence measures of the consumers and that is part of it. >> we are trying to find the mund mentals of what is going on. do you think there is a wealth effect? the fact that the stock market is rallying does that help the whole circle? >> i think the last ten years of what has happened in the stock market has created a change in

people's attitudes towards stocks. and i know what happened in the 30s did not abate in the american mind in the 60s. i don't think people are going to look to their 401 k's and feel wealthy the way they did in 1999 even if it was doubled. i don't think what they are going to get is spent from a dollar gain in stocks. i think it is more like a penny or two. >> i think though, i do surveys of investor attitudes and homeowner attitudes and i don't see this dramatic change. i think that the stock market is up because earnings are up. and i think what is remarkable to me is that people are confident enough confident

enough of the sudden surge in earnings since 2009 to have a high price earnings ratio. it seems like it should be considered unstable at this time. >> but the valuations are lower than where they were at the last big rally in 07 and 99. what are we talking about backward looking earnings. >> yeah, i have my cape adjusted price earnings ratio it is 23. which is high but it is not super high. it was up to 46 in 2000. i think it is a bad idea to bet against businesses to make profits. that is one of the hallmarks against american business. they adjust rapidly to changing conditions. >> we will wrap it up on that note.

>> also jim, you know we have to go. >> see you tomorrow morning. >> maria, i love working with you. >> thank you so much. >> up next not everybody believes in this record high. if we do lose ground after this next segment you will be able to see we didn't warn you. >> a huge night here on cnbc with two premier shows the pressure detectives and the premier of car chasers. don't miss them. back in a moment. more than two years ago,

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welcome back. all good things must come to an end. when did this market slow down. but walter simmerman is warning stocks are going to tank. in fact, there is going to be another major fiths nancial cri. walter, welcome, you are looking at a bunch of different things that haven't kept up with a rally or are breaking down. >> and that is breaking down. what the heck. copper should be leading the move higher. there is a huge disconnect here between dr. copper and the economy. there are other disconnects. the awful gdp number.

personal income. biggest drop in 20 years. the way i look at it. there is a trickle down effect from fed stimulus and it simpacting the stock market. it hasn't trickled down to the consumer level of the economy. you have euphoria in the stock market. i find it is a big turnoff. >> larry, you are talking about this on the show as well. down big in 2012. why the disconnect. i want to ask on the copper story. could that not be a function of the chinese crack down on the property markets. capitol gains rates going up and mortgage rates going up. you are not going to build anymore houses and that would

depress copper. >> it is still not a bullish sign that you have copper breaking down. we are exceeding levels seen in 2007 and at the internet bubble peak. in my experience, euphoria is where bull markets go to die. people are going to be watching tonight. their neighbor has been out of work for a year or more. >> does it make the rally false? >> i think it can continue. >> we are up at 8:00% this year and a lot of people are investing because they see the economy getting better. you see it with friends and family. and payment is improving and there is this wealth effect occurring where people are looking at their 401(k) and they are spending that money. you are seeing it in the market.

>> is it getting better? >> i'm impressed with the ism's. which beat the street on both counts. i regard them as indicators. we have the gasoline thing going on. we are worried about that. we will find out with the same store sales this week. we have a consumer economy. i think there is this effect happening where people are thinking i don't have to save. the government will provide my health care and retirement and i don't have to save. >> real quick make us some money here. we had a huge day-to-day all time high. you have to buy cheap stocks. free port has been crashing. it is going down because of concerns about a slowdown in china. the reason we bought it is we

saw them make committee comment that yesterday. >> even though copper is declining. i think it is due to bounce back. >> this investor you are talking about, isn't there also a sentiment that i'm back to even? and because of that, i'm out? >> i think talking to different investment professionals, they are thinking i can handle a 2% pull back. if it gets to four or five i can handle it. there are a lot of people with the finger on the trigger. >> there is no sign of recession. recession is a sure killer in the stock market. i don't see what the factors are that will lead us to the recession. which i don't think. i'm going to see boehner tomorrow. he i'm hearing a possible

entitlement deal. they may actually be getting it done for a change. that is possible. >> that will do it for the cnbc person special report. >> thank you for being with us. only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. has oats that can help lower cholesterol? and it tastes good? sure does! ♪ wow. [ buzz ] delicious, right? yeah. it's the honey, it makes it taste so... ♪ well, would you look at the time... what's the rush? bee happy. bee healthy. with clusters of flakes and o's. oh, ho ho... it's the honey sweetness. i...i mean, you...love.